ANKARA - Suggesting that HDP must meet with social layers that they can ally with instead of allying with the government or the opposition, Eurasia Research President Kemal Özkiraz said everybody needs the voters of the HDP, which has an estimated vote rate of 11.5.
AKAM President Özkiraz who made strong predictions about the March 31 and June 23 elections, spoke to Mesopotamia Agency (MA) about the latest developments in Ankara, the current position of the political parties and their trends about alliances.
HDP made a call for early elections on November 20, 2019. A year later, İYİ Party and CHP made the same call with a common statement. Do you expect an early election under current conditions?
I don't think there will be an early election. The vote rates in the polls do not have the numbers to encourage Erdoğan. However, if MP's start to resign from the People's Alliance, the AKP or the MHP and Erdoğan loses its majority at the parliament, there might be an early election. But it is not very likely.
AKP has its own inner unrest and that unrest is increasing. The fact that there are AKP followers in AKP who are uncomfortable with the alliance with the MHP sometimes reflect to the press. Do you expect serious disengagements in AKP or MHP?
It depends on the economy in the winter. If the MPs are sure the AKP MHP alliance can not take office again, they may resign.
Does the fact that Erdoğan ended his relationship with his close ally High Advisory Board (YIK) member Bülent Arınç for his words about Demirtaş and Kavala indicate that the AKP- MHP alliance is all that there is left for Erdoğan?
Erdogan really has no other option than the People's Alliance. Because groups outside the Alliance of the Republic are unlikely to join them. CHP joining them is out of question, so is İyi Party. They can not convince their voters to vote for AKP- MHP alliance. HDP is the only party that can move its voters but even HDP can not do it right now. So the only party that can support the People's Alliance with its voters is MHP. Therefore, AKP needs MHP. We should read Bülent Arıç's words like this.
HDP is constantly being targeted by the People's Alliance. Its members are being detained, arrested. There are criticisms that the opposition is not raising their voice in the face of this oppression enough and therefore enabling the oppression. Can all this be read as the government's preparation for a sudden election?
It is certainly related to the elections. But I don't blame the opposition in this regard. Unfortunately, there is a social reality in Turkey. There is a strong opposition against the HDP. In most of the polls, nearly half the opposition voters do not lean towards and alliance with the HDP. In other words, parties cannot make alliances despite their own base. Even if they did, the result would not be good. In addition, up to a third of the HDP base is against the alliance with the CHP. In that respect, I can understand that the opposition keeps away from alliance with the HDP. What I do not understand is the fact that some elements of the alliance do not sufficiently defend and speak against the lawlessness against the HDP. But Meral Akşener's words after Ayhan Bilgen was arrested, gave me some hope in that regard. I think they are getting over the fear of being called a terrorist just for defending HDP against the lawlessness. If the parties get over this, so will the base."
Is it possible for an alliance to change the outcome of the election without HDP?
As in the March 31 elections, existing relations can be preserved without institutional unity with the HDP. Or the following can be done; everyone can nominate their own candidate. After all, it all comes down to the Presidential election. Why? Because HDP does not need an alliance to be in the parliament. It can pass the election threshold by itself. And HDP have done it before and under the heaviest of circumstances. The estimated votes for HDP was 11.5 in a poll we conducted a few days ago. HDP is not in need of the alliance of any parties. On the contrary, all parties need HDP's voter base for the presidential elections. If there will not be a roof candidate, the voter will decide in the second round. If there will be a roof candidate, and HDP decides not to have a candidate of its own, then there'll be no problem. That's why I think an institutional alliance is not a serious need. There are a lot of layers of the society that HDP can ally with. I am talking about the religious Kurds. HDP misses this all the time. I am talking about those who were dismissed with law decrees. The people that can not retire because of their age. If HDP focuses on these and ally with these segments of society, the outcome I think will surely be better.
Does the criminalization of the HDP have an effect on HDP's voter base?
These statements of the government neither aim to reduce the HDP's votes nor to put the HDP under the threshold. What the government says is of no use either ways. These statements of the government do not find a response in HDP voters. The primary aim of these statements is to distance the İYİ Party with the HDP. And the second is to convince its own base that HDP is in line with the Alliance of the Republic. The government's statements about HDP is not actually addressing the HDP, or its base.
MA/ Selman Güzelyüz